While early June’s flooding events in central Europe caused limited local damages, the effect of the abundant precipitations on more extended areas may impact negatively final cereal yields. Higher pressure of pests and diseases or soil saturation might occur. This concern is the most dominant weather feature, with downward risk prevailing at the moment.
On the other hand, a considerable part of the growing season and also of harvesting is still ahead. Therefore, favourable and adverse weather conditions from now onwards can strongly alter the expected harvest 2013. The wet weather conditions as well as the exceptionally cold spring implied delays in the grass growth.
The restricted quantity of the feed available on the European market and the firm prices of this first semester are likely to have led farmers to adapt diets and livestock management. Therefore the expected carcass weights in 2013 are still rather uncertain.
It should be noted that the impact of the recent Russian ban on meat imports from Germany, the Netherlands and Spain might significantly influence trade. It is still unclear when the trade will come back to normal.
Source: EU-Short Term Outlook for arable crops, meats and dairy – Summer 2013.